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October 24, 2025
What Are the Odds of Winning Blackjack? A Complete Guide for Players
Blackjack is one of the most popular casino games in the world — and for good reason. Unlike pokies, where outcomes depend purely on chance, blackjack gives players a level of control. With the right strategy, you can reduce the house edge and improve your odds of winning.
That’s why players often ask: ‘What are the real odds of winning blackjack?’ or how to improve them using the best blackjack strategy.
The short answer is that the odds of winning depend on three main factors:
- The rules of the specific blackjack variation you’re playing.
- The choices you make as a player (hit, stand, double down, split).
- The house edge built into the game.
In this guide, we’ll break down blackjack odds in detail — covering the house edge, probability of common scenarios, blackjack bust odds, and strategies that shift the odds more in your favour for smarter play and factors that affect your chances of winning — so you can walk into your next game with confidence.
Whether you’re a casual player or someone looking to improve their chances, understanding the math behind blackjack is the first step toward smarter play.
Understanding House Edge and Blackjack Odds for Winning Strategies
Before we dive into percentages, let’s establish the basics:
The Goal: Beat the dealer by getting as close to 21 as possible without going over.
The Dealer’s Advantage: The house always acts last. If you bust, the dealer wins automatically — even if they bust later.
House Edge: Blackjack has one of the lowest house edges in the casino, typically around 0.5% to 2%, depending on the rules and your strategy.
This makes blackjack one of the few casino games where player skill matters.
Odds of Winning a Single Hand
On average, here’s how a hand of blackjack plays out statistically:
- Win: ~42–44% of the time
- Lose: ~48–49% of the time
- Push (Tie): ~8–9% of the time
This may seem like the odds are slightly against you — and that’s true. But with basic strategy, you can tilt the numbers back in your favour.
How the House Edge Works in Blackjack
The house edge is what keeps casinos profitable. It represents the built-in advantage the dealer has over the player. In blackjack, this edge comes from three main factors:
Dealer Acts Last – If you bust, you lose immediately.
Payout Variations – Blackjack pays 3:2 at most tables, but some casinos reduce it to 6:5, increasing the house edge.
Rule Differences – Whether the dealer hits on soft 17, how many decks are used, and whether doubling after splitting is allowed all impact odds.
For example:
Single Deck, Dealer Stands on Soft 17: House edge ~0.5% (great for players).
8 Decks, Dealer Hits on Soft 17: House edge ~1% or more.
With perfect strategy, the house edge is only about 0.5%, meaning you lose just 50 cents per 100 AUD wagered on average. Without strategy, it jumps to 2–4%.
Blackjack Payout Odds
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Understanding payouts is just as important as understanding winning odds:
Blackjack (Ace + 10-value card): Pays 3:2 (or 6:5 at some tables — avoid these).
Standard Win: Pays 1:1.
Insurance Bet (when dealer shows Ace): Pays 2:1 but statistically a bad value.
Never play on 6:5 tables. They raise the house edge from ~0.5% to ~2%
Odds of Getting Blackjack
A natural blackjack (Ace + 10-value card) is the holy grail. The odds of being dealt a natural are:
- About 4.8% of the time, or roughly once every 21 hands.
Since naturals usually pay 3:2, they’re one of the most profitable outcomes.
Probability of Busting and Blackjack Winning Odds by Hand Value
One of the most common questions new players ask is: “What are the chances I’ll bust if I hit?”
Here’s the breakdown:
- Hand total 12 → Bust chance: 31%
- Hand total 13 → Bust chance: 39%
- Hand total 14 → Bust chance: 56%
- Hand total 15 → Bust chance: 58%
- Hand total 16 → Bust chance: 62%
- Hand total 17 or more → Bust chance: 69%–100%
This is why blackjack strategy charts often recommend hitting on certain totals, even when it feels risky. The math shows the “riskier” move often saves money in the long run.
Basic Strategy: Reducing the House Edge
Without strategy, the house edge in blackjack can climb to 4–5%. With basic strategy, you can reduce it to under 1%.
Key rules include:
- Always stand on a hard 17 or higher.
- Always hit on 8 or lower.
- Always split Aces and 8s.
- Never split 5s or 10s.
- Double down on 11 if the dealer shows 2–10.
By following these rules (or a strategy chart), you’ll be playing the most statistically correct game possible.
Advanced Odds: Card Counting
Some experienced players push their advantage further through card counting.
- Card counting tracks the ratio of high to low cards left in the deck.
- When the deck is rich in 10s and Aces, odds shift slightly in the player’s favour.
- While not illegal, casinos strongly discourage it.
Card counting shows that blackjack is one of the rare games where skill and knowledge actually shift the odds.
Blackjack Odds vs Other Casino Games
How does blackjack compare to other casino favourites?
- Pokies: House edge 4%–10%, no player influence.
- Roulette (European): House edge 2.7%, limited strategy.
- Baccarat: House edge 1.06% (banker bet).
- Blackjack: House edge 0.5% (with strategy).
Blackjack gives players the best fighting chance to win compared to most other casino games.
Common Mistakes That Hurt Your Odds
Even with great odds, many players make costly errors:
- Playing 6:5 blackjack tables (always stick to 3:2 payouts).
- Taking insurance (bad bet long-term).
- Ignoring strategy charts (guessing increases house edge).
- Over-betting to chase losses.
Online Blackjack vs Live Blackjack Odds
- Online Blackjack (RNG): Uses software and random number generators. Odds are identical to physical blackjack, but you can’t count cards.
- Live Dealer Blackjack: Streamed from a real casino studio. Odds are authentic, and many players feel more comfortable with real dealers.
Both are available at WillBet Casino, with multiple tables, side bets, and live dealer options.
Online Blackjack Odds in Australia
Online casinos in Australia, including WillBet, offer digital RNG blackjack and live dealer blackjack with detailed odds for smarter play. Odds are the same as land-based casinos, but with two key advantages:
- More Variations – Classic, Infinite, Speed Blackjack, VIP tables, etc.
- Transparency – Digital games show exact rules and house edge.
Many players prefer live blackjack because it combines real-time dealing with online convenience
Conclusion: Can You Beat the Odds?
So, what are the odds of winning blackjack? Statistically:
- Roughly 42–44% per hand on average.
- With basic strategy, the house edge drops to under 1%.
- With card counting and ideal conditions, skilled players can sometimes flip the odds in their favour.
Blackjack is one of the rare casino games where knowledge and strategy actually matter. Unlike pokies, where results are purely random, here your decisions directly impact your chances.
Blackjack isn’t about beating the system — it’s about playing smart using proven strategies, understanding blackjack odds, making mathematically correct choices, and reducing the house advantage as much as possible.
At WillBet, you’ll find a wide selection of live blackjack games and online variations with fair odds, fast payouts, and professional dealers.
Whether you’re playing online blackjack in Australia, joining a live dealer game, or sitting at a real casino table, remember: the odds are tough, but smart play makes a difference.
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